By: Geoffrey Van Orden, Distinguished Fellow
India is coming of age – already the world’s most populous nation and democracy, by 2030 at the latest it will become the world’s third largest economy. Prime Minister Modi has set the pace and has become the personal embodiment of India’s success. He leads a self-confident nation, albeit one facing many challenges, and has established his position on the world stage. Modi has shifted India from its old “non-alignment” of the Nehru era to “multi-alignment”. The decades-long links with Russia now include access to oil at discount prices while continuing as a major recipient of Russian defence equipment. But now France has become India’s second largest external defence supplier after Russia, while relations with the United States have steadily improved in the face of the rising challenge of China.
There has now been a complete turnaround in India’s relations with the USA. Previously “due to India’s ideological proclivities as much as strategic calculations” the US was long regarded with suspicion by India. In 2005 Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, was misguidedly refused a visa to the USA. Eighteen years on he was being welcomed to the White House on a state visit, his eighth visit as Prime Minister. US-Indian bilateral trade has increased tenfold since 2000 - from $20 billion to over $200 billion today, making the US India’s biggest individual trading partner.
Four years ago, President Trump and Prime Minister Modi vowed to strengthen a United States-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, reaffirming the pledge to support the transfer to India of advanced U.S. military and civil technology and India’s permanent membership on a reformed UN Security Council. Last October, President Biden reemphasised this commitment, with cooperative ventures in defence manufacturing and a whole range of advanced civil high technologies.
Foreign Minister Jaishankar, who had been India’s ambassador to Washington 2013-15 following his time in Beijing, readily admits that the hard realities of today’s world mean that the US is now seen as a key partner. While India’s multi-alignment and quest for strategic autonomy mean that it will not bind itself as closely as the US may wish there will be ever-closer mutual commitment in the years ahead. The growing political investment in the Quad, the Indo-Pacific quadrilateral security dialogue embracing India, the US, Japan and Australia, is evidence of this new alignment of geo-political outlook.
In this increasingly transactional world, India will want to see what its friends bring to the table, what capabilities they have, and how reliable they will be. Instead of just talking about China, it is time that the West paid far greater attention to India and its growing capabilities. India is potentially the most vital ally of the West as the world becomes more clearly divided between old-fashioned, aggressive autocracies and the liberal democracies that seek peace with freedom and a better world.
